The Fed Will Not Lower Rates

The Economic Outlook--speech by Jeffrey Lacker of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond to the Charlotte Risk Management Association in Charlotte, North Carolina on Aug. 21, 2007 at 12:30pm.
Basically, he said don't look for the fed to cut the federal funds rate soon.
However, that may be just as believable as William Poole's comments that only a "calamity" would justify an interest rate cut, the day before the Fed cut the discount rate.

Countrywide Up on Rumor, Down on News?

Thrifts Hit by Housing Market Problems
The good news obscured by the headline:

Mortgage defaults are slamming the savings and loan industry, although thrifts should be able to weather the housing market downturn, federal regulators said Tuesday.

CFC is a thrift.
US regulator says watching Countrywide very closely

The Office of Thrift Supervision is very closely monitoring events at Countrywide Financial Corp and has had a consistent onsite examination presence at the California company since it converted to a thrift charter in March 2007, an OTS spokesman said on Monday.

Stocks to Watch: Capital One, Countrywide, KKR, Target, Viacom

Countrywide Financial's (CFC) stock fell 7.6% despite the company's attempts to reassure depositors that their funds were safe at the company's Countrywide Bank savings bank unit

My opinion? Countrywide will fall when Buffet says he's not buying.

Their timing couldn't be any better...

China Prepares to Dump US Dollars

CFC the next sacrificial lamb?

First Wells Fargo:
Wells Fargo to close non-prime mortgage unit

Now Capital One:
Capital One to Close Mortgage Unit

And
Countrywide announcing layoffs

As someone on Yahoo finance said, CFC now in Baghdad Bob mode

Flagged for future reference

JIM,
I'll say this 1 more time....the HYBRID system
is going to fail us and we will have a giant
crash...might not be this year or next but it
will happen. That and the new no downtick rule
is crazy.
I'm a trader and I see this happen daily in a
ton of different stocks and it will happen in
the overall market. What say you? They need to
do something about this and they need to, at a
minimum, have a backup plan that they don't tell
anyone else about....because they don't want to
look like clowns. We need specialists or a
different system....I can move CAT a point with
no volume if I wanted to. This is the only
thing scaring me about this selloff!!!!!!!
Asked by jnorine

I dont disagree with any of this. The difference is
that i am the only one in the nation willing to go on
national t.v. and say it and then no one backed me up.
Answered by Jim Cramer

Update on the NYSE's hybrid system

Fed cuts rates and saves the world

Here's a good write up of what just happened:

Five Things You Need to Know: What the Discount Rate Cut Really Means

LTCM II

John Lonski from Moody's Investors Service compares current situation to collapse of LTCM fund today on Bloomberg's final word.

The Sky Keeps Falling

More news stories as the market enters into an official correction (10% down).
Maybe a good time to buy Apple stock.

Why Mortgages Blew Up
UPDATE 1-Fitch revises further its CDO ratings methodology
FOCUS: Valuations In Spotlight As Funds Halt Redemptions
Business comment: Fundamentally, it's time to step back from the maelstrom
Asia property retains allure in stormy market
Banks refuse to mark CDOs to the market
`India to benefit as growth continues`
ETFs Tumble On Investor Worries
Sharp sell-offs on Wall Street

Chicken Little Cries Again

On why good assets get knocked down when markets go bad:
"There's no skill in buying mortgages...The skill was in the credit officer who could get the cheap line of credit," Frank Husic, CIO Husic Capital Management.

Managers sell good assets to raise cash. Tech may get hit by subprime fallout.

Other Articles:
Credit contagion
EDITORIAL - Global financial turbulence; local impact possible
Killer Derivatives, Zombie CDOs and Basel Too?!
Basis Fund Down 80%
'After the Greed, Fear Reigns'
Countrywide Falls, Merrill Cites Bankruptcy Prospect (WOW!)
Mitt Romney Hit by Mortgage Meltdown
Investment fund in Chicago hit by wave of withdrawals

Panic avoided. We live to trade another day.
Stocks End Amazing Day Little Changed

The Morning News

Financials hit hard on word of hedge-fund selling
U.S. Stocks Head for Sharply Lower Open
Countrywide Financial Corp. (CFC)
PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ)
Very Scary Things
NY Fed didn't intervene in forex market in 2nd qtr
Wall Street stunned by funds freeze
News & Views: Wall Street stunned by funds freeze
Hedge Funds Pluck Money From Air in $19 Billion Weather Gamble
Bernanke's Bind: No Easy Answers
Countrywide, Accredited Home Lenders, RadNet in focus
U.S. Stocks Head for Sharply Lower Open
Bloomberg news
Supply fears set wheat futures afire
DJ US Wheat Outlook: 6-8c Up On Tech Momentum, Tight Supplies
Markets to Watch 08/10/2007

No one likes a chicken little, even when the sky really is falling

So BNP Paribas SA, a French bank (actually, one of the largest banks in France), froze three funds that invested heavily in U.S. subprime CDOs (I'm guessing here. They said they could not value the subprime market). For those who don't know what they are, a CDO is a collateralized debt obligation consisting of a bundle of debts, in this case, subprime mortgages, which are themselves bundles of individual mortgages. What's causing the panic is that these bundles of bundles are essentially worthless because in the go-go days of 2005-2007, when people in California, Las Vegas, and Florida were lining up at realtors to buy a home with no money down in the hopes of flipping it for a substantial profit a week later, no one remembered that what goes up must come down, and that when it did come down, those holding the bags of hot potatoes would have to pay.

This, combined with the unwinding of the Yen carry-trade (a system of making money by borrowing funds from a country with a low interest rate and putting the money in higher interest vehicles in another) is causing a tightening of liquidity in the markets. Liquidity is a measure of how easy it is to buy and sell stocks for a profit, and convert it to cash. Liquidity is tightened when you can't sell for as much of a profit, because no one wants to sell for a loss, so you have to hold and wait for your positions to go up again, only, this takes time, and time is the enemy of liquidity.

So this economic environment is limiting the profits and sustainability of hedge funds and hedge fund profits. The Dow went down over 350 (almost 3%) today and the Nikkei is already down over 350 (2%).

Cramer had a fit, the Fed added a sentence to their statement that said they recognised that there is a credit problem, but they wouldn't change the rates, but followed the European Central Bank by adding money to the market. The Bank of Japan, not to be left out, just joined in.

Also, if that weren't the worst of it, Countrywide Financial (CFC), which was touted as being able to survive this row, has announced that the mortgage situation is "unprecedented." They were down 12% in the aftermarket. Lord only knows what will happen tomorrow.

Sources:
Dow Sinks 387 on Renewed Credit Concerns
Countrywide: Mortgage market 'unprecedented'
Japanese Stocks Drop on Concern Subprime Losses Will Spread
BNP Paribas Freezes Funds as Loan Losses Roil Markets (Update5)
Bank of Japan Adds Biggest Amount of Funds Since June (Update1)

Time to Short BSC, GS, JPM, MER, UBS, WM, BAC

Time to short the financials-- they've been riding high for too long on too much liquidity. Unfortunately, it's going to go down before it goes up. We are in a similar situation to when Bush the first was campaigning for office-- except the time frame has been lengthened. Instead of being a lame duck president for one year, Bush the second will be a lame duck for two, and even though the President doesn't determine the economy, the market doesn't know that. High volatility and frightening drops will keep coming until long into 2009, when a democratic win may bring back the market highs of the late 90s.

Hedge Funds Behind Late-Day Stock Moves

Will Citadel Fall?

micaiah2004 on the Beazer Homes (BZH) message board says that Citadel puts alot of liquidity into the market, but warns that it could fall as well. Nicholas Yulico writes in The Street that Citadel upped it's stake in BZH to 5.7%.

Sowood fund Assets Gobbled Up by Citadel

The assets of the Sowood fund, which recently lost over $3 billion
as reported in Reuters, was gobbled up by Citadel, which also grabbed 
Amaranth's assets. With hedge funds, it is a matter of time and liquidity before
they make or lose money. The article goes on to say that Ken Griffin,
the manager, can wait out the bad calls and ultimately make money
on the positions. If hedge fund managers weren't so impatient, they
would eventually make money on all their positions as long-term
investors. But not everyone is as patient as Warren Buffet.

Amaranth Accused of Manipulating Gas Prices

The Sydney Morning Herald reports that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has filed in US Court for the Southern District of New York a civil enforcement action against Amaranth, accusing the former hedge fund of manipulating natural gas prices. The Amaranth fund bought futures contracts for natural gas in 2006, betting that prices would rise in the cold winter months. 
But the winter was not cold, prices fell, and the fund lost over $6 billion.
Also reported on Bloomberg.com.