And here it is: Goldman, like cream, rises to the top

Goldman Sachs Rakes in Profit in Credit Crisis
While other firms tumble and fall, Goldman rises with profits from their hedges against toxic mortgage backed securities.

Meanwhile,

Fed fund futures show traders see a 90 percent chance the central bank will reduce its target a quarter-percentage point to 4.25 percent at its Dec. 11 meeting, 67 percent odds of another 25-basis-point cut in January, and a 43 percent likelihood the rate falls to 3.75 percent in March. Policy makers already lowered the target from 5.25 percent in August.

So, unless Bernanke feels like bucking the trend, expect to see further rate cuts, no matter what the other Fed governors say.

Simple, but not easy

A billionaires' guide to investing.

Hedge funds normally charge fees of 1.5 to 2 per cent of the asset value plus 20 per cent of the return. Their own fees make it hard for them to deliver the goods.

Mr Oldfield quotes the decline of the first hedge fund, A. W. Jones. In December 1968 it had $200 million under management: in September, 1970, that had fallen to $31 million. Later George Soros was to rebuild the reputation of hedge funds but there remain questions about whether they can find the exceptional talent they need and whether clients will pay their fees.

Don't believe the hype

OPEC Interested in Non-Dollar Currency
Do you believe the behind the scenes leaked news that OPEC members want to support the dollar, or the posturing by Iran's Ahmadinejad and Venezuela's Chavez, who have blatant political motives for creating a new world standard for pricing oil? I'll go with door number 1. Nevertheless, oil will price over $100 this week.

[Added 11/19/2007] Note that this was only the third time that a full OPEC meeting has occurred with all members and states since the committee was formed in 1960. What does that say?

Saudis don't want the US dollar to collapse

Saudi Arabia Won't Include U.S. Dollar in OPEC Talks
Good thing it was accidentally broadcast to journalists.

86% chance fed will cut rates in Dec: take the pain now or later?

Fed's Kroszner Says `Rough Patch' Won't Warrant Cuts
This is exactly what I was expecting in September, but instead of holding steady, the Fed cut rates by 50 bps. So now they are saying they want the economy to weather the rough waters of the coming months, and probably all of 2008. The 5-headed monster Fed is testing the waters by letting the Fed governors speak freely. First Poole says that only a calamity would force a change in Fed policy, then the 50 bps cut, then Miskin's the man to watch as his guidance has more closely followed what the Fed did, now Kroszner pops his head above water.

First the recession is imminent. Then there's a 30% chance. Now no one is sure.
One thing may be sure: earnings next year doesn't look too good. However, I'm investing in ROW stocks. That's stocks that sell to the Rest Of the World more than the US.

Hedge fund collapse? Why not banks and brokerages instead? Why not cities and towns?

Florida Holds $2.2 Billion of Debt Cut to Junk Status
This article goes over the how mortgage-backed securities are threatening some cities and towns that invested in them. But buried at the end is a little history on the collapse of banks and brokerages. Not exactly the hedge funds I was looking for, but tragic enough:

Potential losses by states are part of the subprime meltdown that shook up Merrill Lynch & Co., the world's biggest brokerage, in October. The firm reported a $2.24 billion third- quarter loss and an $8.4 billion write-down, leading to the firing of CEO Stan O'Neal.

Executives Step Down

The next week, subprime losses reported by Citigroup Inc., which at the time was the largest U.S. bank by market value, led to the departure of CEO Charles Prince.

In June, two bear Stearns Cos. hedge funds holding subprime debt reported losses of $1.5 billion. Bear Stearns fired Warren Spector, the firm's co-president for fixed income and asset management and the bank's stock lost 30 percent of its value in the following two months.

Bernanke: Fed will respond "as needed"

Bloomberg report.

Fed speaks II

Lacker says the mortgage crisis isn't over yet. I say just wait until next year's rate cuts. Dissention in the ranks by non-voting members. If it gets much worse you may see more regulation in the mortgage market.
Warsh is waiting for more information.
Poole says we may need more cuts, which worries me, because he was against this before the first one.
Instead of Greenspan, now we have a five-headed monster to deal with when attempting to decode future moves.

Miskin Speaks; Fed outook is as volatile as the markets

Miskin spoke to the House Small Business Committee. Bloomberg report. Reuters. Looks like he's taking back what he said about taking back the Halloween rate cut. "Wait and see" seems to be the tone of this cautious Fed. Later today we'll hear from Warsh, Lockhart, and Poole, then Bernanke tomorrow.